08/19/15 – There’s No Earthly Way of Knowing Which Direction We’re Going

Sideways action

Round the world and home again
That’s the sailor’s way
Faster faster, faster faster

There’s no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going
There’s no knowing where we’re rowing
Or which way the river’s flowing

Is it raining, is it snowing
Is a hurricane a-blowing

Not a speck of light is showing
So the danger must be growing
Are the fires of Hell a-glowing
Is the grisly reaper mowing

Yes, the danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing
And they’re certainly not showing
Any signs that they are slowing

‘Wondrous Boat Ride’, from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory (1971)

The S&P 500 has been trading in an extremely tight range for over 6 months now. Some might view this as weakness, but I take the contrarian point of view and say that this is a bull market that doesn’t know when to give up. Despite the Greek crisis, “taper tantrum”, China’s coming recession, the market has pretty much shrugged off all of these things and decided it’s just going to sit right where it’s at, thank you very much.

I suppose at some point the market will have to make it’s mind up on what it wants to do, but as far as what that is, it’s anybody’s guess. The market tends to make a fool out of everyone, especially when everyone just knows what it’s going to do. Instead of smooth sailing, investing is a lot more like Willy Wonka’s Wondrous Boat Ride. Sometimes you just gotta close your eyes and enjoy it as best you can.

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